Elliott Wave: building scenarios
I use waves to place a move within a broader structure. A multi-timeframe reading helps distinguish the main scenario from its alternatives. A wave count remains a hypothesis, with an invalidation level.
MY METHOD
Context before the signal.
Read the structure, test your assumptions and define an invalidation level before taking action.
THE PROCESS
Prepare.
Observe.
Manage.
Candlesticks: reading the price reaction
A candle is never read in isolation. Its position, nearby levels and the sequence that precedes it give the signal its meaning. I look for consistency between the context and the observed reaction.
Wyckoff: understanding market phases
Studying price and volume helps form hypotheses about accumulation, distribution and trend transitions. These observations complement my wave reading.
Risk management: preparing the decision
Before an entry, I define the scenario, its invalidation and the accepted risk. The trading journal is then used to review decisions, including when a scenario does not play out.
EDUCATIONAL TOOL
Putting risk
into perspective.
Compare a theoretical risk with a profit target. The ratio alone measures neither the probability of success nor the quality of a trade.
1 : 2.00
Break-even win rate: 33.3% before fees.
Simplified example: constant gains and losses, excluding fees and slippage.